There are certain milestones in any process that, when crossed, is not reversible. There is no way back (or return). Many small events collectively lead to a change of a larger scale. Once a leaf falls from the tree, it cannot be re-attached.
Processes taking place within a leaf stem that attaches it to the branch, collectively weaken the stem’s ‘bind’ to the branch. Due to this, at one time the leaf becomes heavier than the weakening stem and falls off. When we make a cup of coffee, the ground coffee used in it cannot be transformed back to roasted coffee nuts. As we grind the roasted nuts, they are collectively powdered from their original outlook, and lose the strength to become a whole nut again. Once a tipping point is passed we cannot go back to the original form. The ‘leaf’, appears to be connected to the tree by its stem and the tipping point for it to fall is when the stem loses its ‘bind’ to the tree. As the tipping point is reached, the leaf leaves the branch and there is no ‘turning back’ for it.
Initially we never expected new variants of COVID virus would emerge (that too with new, destructive powers). We stuck to social distancing, desensitizing our palms and wearing masks. As Omicron emerged showing that it did not have much in common with other variants and can spread regardless of vaccination and could be present without showing any symptoms, a tipping point was reached in the history of the Pandemic. The new variant was initially speculated to be not deadly as the original variant or (even the Delta) but it was not the case. Its speed of spread and threat posed to the unvaccinated people were considerable. Also, more older people were falling dead from Omicron. Though social distancing, desanitizing palms and use of masks were useful practices, the increasing need for vaccination appeared to be critical to survive this tipping point, the Omicron.
Communicators on climate change, for successful messaging, need to be aware of the tipping points in climate change and watch for emergence of ‘Climate Change Omicrons’ in it. These tipping points hint that we have passed the climate change journey beyond polar bear issues to macro level flooding, heat waves and running towards Net Zero.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned of the worst tipping point (so far) in Climate Change on the lines of degrees of heating of the planet.
“..The IPCC has warned that exceeding 2°C of warming could have catastrophic consequences and that we need to keep global warming to 1.5°C. The world is currently on track to surpass both of those limits. Under the most optimistic scenario, if all 140 countries that have announced net zero targets or are considering them actually reach these goals, as well as their more ambitious 2030 commitments under the Paris Agreement, warming could be limited to 1.8°C by 2100.”- news.climate.columbia.edu
According to the UN, “irreversible climate tipping points” lie alarmingly close.
“…But will overshooting 1.5°C push us over climate tipping points, triggering irreversible and abrupt changes? The IPCC’s latest report warned of that possibility, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently said, “…time is running out. Irreversible climate tipping points lie alarmingly close.” -news.climate.columbia.edu
According to a Global Commons Alliance poll, 73% of people in G20 countries think Earth is close to climate tipping points.
“And much research indicates that if we do not curb our carbon emissions immediately to keep global warming below 2°C, we are headed for irreversible and catastrophic conditions..” -news.climate.columbia.edu
The Columbia Climate School indicates several major climate tipping points:
The Greenland ice sheet:
“The Greenland ice sheet contains enough water to raise global sea levels by over 20 feet and its melting is accelerating…While its disintegration is not likely to be abrupt, there could come a point beyond which its eventual collapse is irreversible for millennia.” -news.climate.columbia.edu
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)
“Some scientists believe WAIS could be headed for an irreversible collapse, which could threaten a large part of the it and raise global sea levels by two feet or more..” -news.climate.columbia.edu
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
“…one of the main global ocean currents and is critical to regulating climate… as glaciers and ice sheets melt, they add fresh, less dense water to the North Atlantic, which prevents the water from sinking and impedes circulation. This may be why AMOC has slowed 15 percent since the 1950s. A recent study found that the AMOC is in its weakest state in 1,000 years..” -news.climate.columbia.edu
Amazon rainforest
“…the world’s largest tropical rainforest, is losing its ability to bounce back from damage caused by droughts, fires and deforestations..”-BBC
“..The Amazon plays an important role in the world and regional climate systems, redistributing water around South America, influencing the global atmospheric circulation, protecting biodiversity and storing many billions of tons of carbon dioxide that would otherwise increase global heating…”-Time.com
“Amazon stores 200 billion tons of carbon—equal to about five years of global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels—and is home to millions of species of plants and wildlife. The moisture from the Amazon’s rainfall returns to the atmosphere from the soil through evaporation and from plants through transpiration. This self-sustaining process creates clouds and more rainfall… Because of logging, ranching, mining, agriculture, and fires, the Amazon has lost about 17 percent of its tree cover… If 20-25 percent of the Amazon were deforested, its tipping point could be crossed… parts of the rainforest could transition into a savannah, a drier ecosystem…Crossing this tipping point would also result in the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, affect global weather patterns, and threaten the lives of 30 million people…”..” -news.climate.columbia.edu
Thawing of permafrost
Permafrost is the “perennially frozen ground occurring in about 24% of the exposed land surface in the Northern Hemisphere” (United Nations Environmental Programme-UNEP). According to UNEP, permafrost degradation will permanently change local hydrology, increasing the frequency of fire and erosion disturbances. Even though permafrost appear to be situated remotely and are solidly bound to the ground, they have begun to thaw. UNEP called the thawing of permafrost “one of the top 10 emerging issues of environmental concern.” Since air temperature is the dominant control on global permafrost distribution, change in air temperature would unfasten it, speeding climate change.
